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In the sixth episode of the series "Human 2040", entitled "I buy", we move to the shopping world of the future. Can a smart home decide for itself what we need? How will we produce more sustainable meat in 2040? And will shopping malls survive until then? In the latest part of the series, analysts from Polityka Insight take a closer look at such trends as unmanned shops, the growing popularity of parcel machines or assistant services helping with clothes selection. In the podcast dedicated to the future of shopping hosted by Andrzej Bobiński, managing director of Polityka Insight, the guest is Tomasz Woźniak, founder, partner and CEO of Future Mind - a technology and consulting company that supports clients in digital initiatives and creates innovative mobile software.



‘FAST-FOOD’ ENTERS POLAND.

The Danish luxury restaurant network specializes in animal food. New restaurants use a drive-in sales model (for the motorized). Meat is supplied to the Danish network by a Polish company, Real Meat, with which the Danes are linked by capital.

‘Fast-Food’ is a Danish network founded on the wave of the ‘gourmet nostalgia’ trend. Since meat from laboratories does not differ from its animal original, restaurants are seeking solutions that help feel taste from times when ‘meat was meat’ as is said in the Real Meat's advertising campaign. Restaurants, which at the turn of the 20th and the 21st centuries were referred to as fast food, still operate successfully on the market; however, following prevailing consumer trends, they already offer only products of plant and laboratory origin, and most of the services are provided by way of delivery.

Newly opened restaurants are located on the borders of the megalopolis of Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław. The network intends to cooperate with one of the car sharing companies and offer discounts to motorized consumers who rent a car for a nonurban tour. The discount is supposed to depend on the number of people in the car. However, the catering premises are not intended to generate income for the Polish and Danish consortium. ‘Fast-Food’ restaurants are intended to be a showcase for the company that is trying to enter the boxed food market. 

Due to the high costs of animal meat production, the consortium is fighting for entry into the premium segment. It seeks to obtain a ‘superfood’ certificate for meat products, which would enable it to compete with leading producers of boxed food. The lobby of companies that produce synthetic meat is blocking the admission of producers of meat of animal origin to the list of certified superfoods. The Consortium argues that Polish and Danish beef and pork meets the statutory criteria of superfood, i.e. ‘balanced food in such a way as to provide the necessary nutrients in quantities and proportions individually adapted to one’s body’.

The case may be referred to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), and Poles and Danes argue that the consumption of meat of animal origin in the EU is today so low that it has no longer any environmental impact and hyper-regulation of animal products violates consumer rights. In addition, the lawyers of both companies accuse the ‘boxed big six’ of unfair competition. According to the latest data, the largest companies in the industry already control 67% of the processed food market and 42% of the total food market in the EU.

GUS: 50% OF TRANSACTIONS IN THE E-COMMERCE CHANNEL TAKE PLACE WITHOUT HUMAN INTERVENTION

According to Central Statistical Office data, Poland is the eighteenth EU country to exceed the limit of 50% of transactions made with the use of autonomous purchases. Experts estimate that increases measured by the number of transactions are slowing down, but the value of autonomous transactions will continue to grow and may exceed 75% over the next four years. 

In contrast, according to the most recent CBOS survey, the greatest value for consumers is convenience (82% of respondents; less than 96% below the age of 50) and timesaving (76% and 83%) in the performance of daily duties. For this reason, the e-commerce channel stabilized at a level of over 90% of all transactions. Most day-to-day purchases are made directly using smart home systems that help prepare the necessary purchase lists, plan the most effective time and course of purchases and actually carry out the entire purchasing process without the consumer's involvement.

Paradoxically, for about half of buyers (54% and 46%) it is still important to be able to physically contact and try the product before the final purchase, especially for durable consumer goods. Therefore, brick-and-mortar stores and shopping centres play an important social role. In particular, the latter are treated as places for leisure time with family and friends when testing and tailoring the desired products. Although most shopping in shopping centers takes place online (often using one-click-buy) with home delivery.

The remaining 10% of purchase transactions are made in housing estate convenience stores where the Poles buy non-essential products, i.e. products which are not ordered by our algorithm as they are not necessary for our body (e.g. sweets, snacks or alcoholic beverages). A wide network, small area and 24-hour availability, as well as  the lack of service personnel provide only an illusion of anonymity as all purchases are recorded on accounts. 

COOP TO HAS BECOME THE FIRST POLISH COMPANY ON THE FORTUNE 500 LIST

Szczeciński jednorożec, a company specialising in providing sales solutions for the world's largest brands, has entered the Fortune Global list with a bang and is ranked 456. The company was also ranked seven in the Software, UX and VR category.

COOP TO is a company founded in Szczecin in 2023 by two female IT specialists who have not yet agreed to the public disclosure of their identities. In one of the first interviews, the founders told the media that companies that focused on ‘what’ and ‘where’ they sell will remain behind in the race for the customer of the future. The question on which companies should focus is ‘how.’ They intend to provide solutions that will enable them to find the best and most effective answers to the only question that has let them outperform their competitors.

COOP TO started with the segment of unified trade. Polski jednorożec created systems to integrate online and offline stores. In the first years of its activity, the company specialized in the issue of  liquid user experience which consists in the maximum integration of interfaces (e.g. a telephone or tablet) with the real world. 

At the beginning of the 30s, after successive investment phases, COOP TO went shopping itself. The company bought four software boutiques specializing in immersive technologies – VR (virtual reality) or AR (augmented reality). The connection with the Pol-Hol software boutique, specializing in commercial exploitation of holograms, enabled COOP TO to sign a longterm contract with Nike and enter its solutions into the showrooms of the American company worldwide.

According to analysts, COOP TO has not missed any of the technologies that have shaped the way we buy today. Whether it was voice, remote control, trade intelligence breakthroughs or ultimately ‘open finance’ – the Polish company saw the opportunities of each technology and created a trading ecosystem, thanks to which over 50% of purchase transactions are made without our knowledge.

With alternatives of plant and insect origin, pure meat can completely eradicate farmed meat. The first pure beef burger was served in 2013, but massive production of laboratory meat will only be possible when we control its production in industrial bio-reactors. Encouraged by environmental issues, lower prices, health advantages and the desire to reduce animal suffering, consumers are ready to change. We should also expect action from regulators, for whom reducing livestock meat consumption is key to slowing down climate warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that cutting meat consumption could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one fifth of what is needed to keep warming below two degrees Celsius.

Read more:
Post, M. J. et al. (2020) Scientific, sustainability and regulatory challenges of cultured meat.
Verbeke, W., Sans, P., Van Loo, E. J. (2015) Challenges and prospects for consumer acceptance of cultured meat.
N. Hatalska (2017) Future of Food.

Rather than buying to own, we will use more goods in the short term and share them with others. One such asset is a car. In cities, the centres will be closed to private cars and alternatives in the form of public transport will provide cheaper, faster and more comfortable travel. We will use cars from time to time to go out of town, but then it is enough to rent a car as part of a car pooling or sharing service. In order to reduce emissions, regulators will limit the use of vehicles for self-driving, including by means of vehicle-with-passenger-only lanes and modern public transport.

Read more:
Chudy, B. (2019) Historyczne centrum Warszawy bez samochodów - zapowiada Rafał Trzaskowski
Wiliams, L. (2019) What happens when a city bans cars from its streets?

Boxed food is a sales model in which a company sends to a subscriber measured and partially prepared products and recipes for preparing domestic meals. The business model was invented in 2007 in Sweden and is currently experiencing increasing popularity in Poland and worldwide. Its important advantage, particularly from an environmental point of view, is to reduce food waste – the consumer receives only the amount of food he/she needs on a given day.

Read more:
Sagran, E. (2015) The $5 Billion Battle For The American Dinner Plate
Kowalik, F. (2018) Polacy pokochali żywność z pudełka

Superfoods are products that contain highly valuable ingredients in each calorie. According to the scale of nutritional densities (ANDI), kale, linseed, nuts and cranberry, among others, have unique nutritional densities. There is currently no single existing list of superfoods, but with an ageing population and growing consumer interest in healthy foods, the need for regulation will increase.

Read more:
Wolfe, D. (2015) Superżywność. Jedzenie i medycyna przyszłości.

In the future, the consumer will take purchasing decisions increasingly less frequently. First of all, the need for routine purchases will disappear; instead, the smart home will order products itself. In addition, an increasing number of needs will be met in the subscription model (AaaS, i.e. anything-as-a-service). For example, as part of a clothing subscription, we will be able, instead of buying, to rent a suit for a job interview, and as part of a carsharing subscription, we will have access to a car tailored to our needs.

Read more:
Lewis, S. (2020) The XaaS Phenomenon in the Tech Marketplace
Lah, T. (2020) The Surprising Success Of XaaS

Nowadays, the possibility of seeing and trying a product is the main motivation for visiting a store.

Read more:
Evans, M. (2018) Commerce 2040. Revolutionary Tech Will Boost Consumer Engagement.

One-click-buy means entering payment and delivery data before making a purchase. The user can then place an order with one click (‘1-Click’). In the USA, Amazon had a patent to order with a single click between 1999 and 2017 (in the EU, the patent application was rejected).

Read more:
Wharton (2017) Why Amazon’s ‘1-Click’ Ordering Was a Game Changer
Kirk, J. (2011) Europe Rejects One-click-to-buy Amazon Patent Application

Unserviced stores operate without physical personnel and self-service cash registers – they operate on the basis of technologies enabling purchases to be made by taking goods from the shelf. The smart store knows which products have been taken and the purchase takes place by collecting funds directly from the consumer's account. The development of computer vision technology and RFID labels may enable stores of this kind to be popularised. Even now, Żabka, Amazon and Tencent among others have prototype non-service stores.

Read more:
Karpińska, J. (2021) Samoobsługowa Żabka już działa. Sklepy bez kasjerów
Liao, S. (2018) Amazon opens its first cashier-less Go store outside of Seattle

Unified commerce is the integration of offline and online channels into sales. It enables buyers to have consistent brand experience, whether they purchase online or in a bricks-and-mortar store. An example is clothing stores that provide online advice with a sales agent in a physical store where they can show available products and offer advice. The client then ends the purchase online. The standardised trade enables the seller to trace the customer between the channels in a simpler way than with multi-channel sales, which in turn results in better personalisation of the offering and the creation of uniform loyalty programmes.

Read more:
Soncini, J. (2019) Why unified commerce is becoming the retail industry standard

The concept of a user's fluid experience implies that the boundaries between the virtual and the real world will be blurred to such an extent that the user is unable to distinguish them. Liquid UX products can be identified by five features:
Continuous interaction
Smooth transition between reality and the virtual world
Involvement of the five senses
No need for controllers, mice and keyboards
Anticipating user needs

Read more:
Lu, M. (2020) Liquid UX: the future of user experiences